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Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple pattern. It frequently acts as a type of apology. Sorry we underestimated your franchise in our preseason projections.

In theory, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who oversaw the most dramatic turnaround wins the award. In practice, it fuels an annual discussion about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding superior leadership or just the biggest surprise.

But the current competition is distinctly unique. The group of contenders is exceptionally deep. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning division champions falling away and recent also-rans ascending together. During an normal season, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the clear favorite. But in this chaotic and thrilling season, he's competing with several other outstanding coaches.

Here is how the projected ballot could be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by QBs. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. Given a proper environment, the QB has been afforded the chance to showcase his special talent. From Week 9, the Bears sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's consistent performance. With Johnson, Williams has become increasingly decisive, far less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the system instead of going rogue. It is an attack constructed entirely in the coach's image: a bully-ball run game, a steady dose of play-action and a innovative aerial game that springs wide-open receivers consistently. The QB has thrived. And when openings haven't been available, he's been able to conjure big plays from broken plays.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive philosophy. Virtually each gamble – overhauling the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, turning Williams into a rhythm thrower – has worked. That's uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who entered the organization with the level of hype he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after candidate on the head coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no sure things. Somehow, he has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme dork but the type of leader that can breathe new life into an organization.

During a typical year, Johnson would be the runaway favorite. But the current isn't a typical year!

Where Johnson's candidacy runs slightly unstuck is on defense. The Bears presently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously fickle. Defensive minds can emphasise ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offense is legitimate. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defensive work. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the team would be two victories behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is in place for sustained success. However Johnson falls just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's another first-time leader who has engineered a dramatic turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, he has excelled at the off-field stuff, which wasn't a guarantee following his early public introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed their staff with the ideal staff mix of new ideas and experience, he hired first-timers. Starting with the leader himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That kind of setup is exciting on paper, but often collapses in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a their job in real-time. But he has pulled the entire group and everything into sync.

Following an early hot beginning, there was a risk that the season would go off the track. A midseason setback had the Jags stumbling again. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. He did not. Rather, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive plays and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen refocused the offense around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more.

The results are clear. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. He receives the slightest knock in the standings because he took over a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year case has a hinge decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback move.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a new signal-caller and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator might have derailed the season in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. By the middle point of the season, the new QB was an MVP front-runner. He has fallen away since that time, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the season, placing him just one spot ahead of peers.

Still